Politics with Nolan: The Future of the GOP
By Nolan Cleary, Managing Editor
A country divided has been the headline for the past few weeks now. The violence and attempted attack of sedition on the capitol, Donald Trump departing from office while facing a second impeachment trial, and Democrats holding their first trifecta since 2011 are all significant political events. It leads many to ponder, what is the future of the Republican Party?
The answer may be more complicated than at face value. Many have suggested that the party will abandon Trump and return to the simpler days of George W. Bush’s era in the White House.
Utah Senator Mitt Romney suggested he believes the party has abandoned its roots of being a free trade, free-market party. That party, however, may be gone for good. Republican pollster Frank Luntz found 91% of Trump’s supporters said they would vote for him again. According to a poll from Morning Consult and Politico, 71% of Republicans believe Donald Trump did more for the country than Congress.
Trump may not be out of the spotlight yet, as the former president is hinting he could launch another run for the White House in 2024. If Trump were to win, he’d be the second president in American history, after Grover Cleveland, to serve two non-consecutive terms.
However, Trump is likely not to be a sure-fire bet in 2024. Other Republicans have shown interest in throwing their hat into the ring, such as former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse and Florida Senator Marco Rubio; these Republicans are speculated to try and bring the party back to the center.
This brings the party to a new issue– consolidating the Trump voters. While the establishment may not favor Trump, the base does. The base might not turn out for something less than Trump, and could instead leach to a potential Patriot Party. If that were to happen, it would almost ensure a Democratic victory that year.
Republicans may have to also worry about suburban voters turning away from them. Donald Trump’s failure to ignite voters outside of metropolises killed his chances of winning crucial swing states like Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania.
Another worry among Republicans is that Trump’s polarizing personality could energize Democrats to turn out in droves once again. To appease the base, Republicans may have to grapple with the fact that Trumpism is here to stay, as most voters now prefer the populist, socially conservative message to one of the free markets and free trade.
Can they balance that with the key demographics, however? If not, the answer may not be to nominate Trump in 2024, but rather a conservative who emulates the Trump playbook. Florida Governor Ron Desantis is a favorite of the party.
A staunch supporter of the president, Desantis, is rumored to seek the presidency since his election to be governor in 2018. Desantis performed well amongst suburban voters, even coming close to winning the historically left-leaning Miami-Dade area.
However Republicans choose to come together, they may not have much time, as the 2022 midterm elections are approaching fast. The GOP hopes to gain back the U.S. House of Representatives to put a dent in the Biden agenda.