Politics with Nolan: The NY GOP’s Unlikely Hope
By Nolan Cleary, Editor-in-Chief
For decades, the state of New York has gained a reputation as a bastion of liberal values.
In 2020, Republican Donald Trump, a New Yorker himself, received a mere 37% of the vote in the state, while Democrat Joe Biden received nearly 61% of the vote.
No Republican has held statewide office in New York since 2006, a Republican hasn’t represented the state in Congress since 1999. The last time a Republican carried the state in a Presidential election was back in 1984 when Ronald Reagan famously won 49 out of 50 states in the electoral college.
Republicans in New York did have control of the New York State Senate. However, that ended in 2018, when Democrats retook control of the lower chamber and gained a trifecta statewide.
So, why are Republicans suddenly so optimistic about their chances of winning the next gubernatorial election in New York next year? In the past four statewide gubernatorial elections, Republicans were clobbered in massive landslides.
Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino, who unsuccessfully challenged Cuomo in 2014, came the closest to retaking the state’s top office, but still failed by a staggering 14 points.
Last year, incumbent Governor Andrew Cuomo’s approval numbers reached the 80s.
Governor received massive praise for his handling of the pandemic in early COVID days, while millions watched his award-winning press conferences on television. This popularity made Cuomo nearly a lock to win re-election to a fourth term, something his famous father couldn’t do.
In recent months, however, Cuomo’s swarm of scandals has put his re-election prospects. The Governor’s handling of COVID nursing home cases, along with a plethora of sexual harassment allegations have given Republicans a small hope of redemption in the state.
Two major Republicans have already declared their candidacy. For one, New York Congressman Lee Zeldin has already entered the race for Governor. A 41-year-old Iraq War veteran, Zeldin represents parts of Long Island in the U.S. House of Representatives.
If elected, Zeldin would be the first Jewish Republican to serve as Governor of New York. Additionally, Andrew Giuliani, son of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, has also declared his intention to run.
Albany native Elise Stefanik, another Iraq War veteran turned member of Congress, is also reportedly looking at a run. However, Republicans may have to reckon with their support of President Donald Trump if they want to win.
Stefanik is known to be a strong ally of the former President, having spoken in his favor at last year’s Republican National Convention. According to FiveThirtyEight, Zeldin voted with Trump nearly 89% of the time in the U.S. House of Representatives, while Giuliani worked for the President.
While Republicans who have run against Trump, while holding largely socially liberal ideas, have previously seen success electing Republican Governors in northeastern Democratic states like Maryland, Massachusetts and Vermont.
For this reason, many have suggested nominating a more moderate Republican.
John Katko, a Congressman from Syracuse has reportedly been approached about seeking a run for office. Katko represents a heavily Democratic district in Congress and voted with Democrats for impeaching Donald Trump during his second impeachment trial.
Joel Giambra, the former Erie County Executive is reportedly looking at another run for Governor. Giambra considers himself socially liberal.
Former Republican Governor and 2016 candidate for President George Pataki may also seek a fourth non-consecutive term. Pataki is a moderate who supports lax immigration policy and identifies as pro-choice in the issue of abortion.
Robert Whittaker, a political science professor at Hudson Valley Community College said that he believes both Zeldin and Katko face uphill challenges.
“I think one of the biggest challenges Governor Cuomo is going to face is simply name recognition and getting voters to know who they are. Elise Stefanik has benefited from some national name recognition. She was able to get [President Trump] to visit her district in Northern New York and establish a name for herself,” Whittaker said.
“Katko and Zeldin I think would have a much greater challenge building name recognition amongst voters.” Whittaker said that he thinks a moderate Republican could have a safer chance of winning.
“Thinking back to the success that some moderate Republicans have had in the past, like George Pataki, and the political climate of the state, I think a moderate Republican candidate could have a better shot of peeling off some Democrats who are perhaps disaffected with Governor Cuomo,” Whittaker said.
Whittaker did say, however, that former President Donald Trump’s popularity within the Republican Party shouldn’t be underestimated. “These are not ordinary times. Donald Trump remains hugely popular within the Republican Party,” Whittaker said.
In addition to picking up several Governorships during the 2022 midterms, Republicans would also like to take back the U.S. House of Representatives as well.
When all vacancies are filled, Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats will hold just a 7 seat majority in the upper chamber. John Katko is in a district Joe Biden carried by nine points. Zeldin is in a district Trump carried by just four. Some Republicans fear the retirements from both men could leave both seats up for grabs.
Whittaker said it’s unlikely that Republicans should be more concerned that congressional redistricting hurt their chances of success. New York will lose one seat in the House when redistricting occurs.
This year will be the first time since 1911 that Democrats have full control over what the congressional map in the state will look like in 2022.
“You can bet that it won’t be a Democrat’s seat who’s eliminated when it comes time to redraw seats,” Whittaker said.