Politics with Nolan: Why Democrats Will Likely Dominate On Election Day

By Nolan Cleary, Managing Editor

It feels like yesterday when then-candidate Donald Trump shocked the political world by winning the 2016 election, shocking pundits and experts who denied that the real estate mogul could even have a chance of winning the Republican nomination, let alone the White House. 

The night was nothing short of devastating for Democrats. Not only had Trump, a man they reviled, been elected the new leader of the free world, but at the time, Republicans had a near-total grasp on power. The U.S. House of Representatives, U.S. Senate, and Supreme Court were all in the hands of the Grand Old Party. 

Since then, Democrats have made substantial gains. In 2018, Democrats retook control of the U.S. House of Representatives for the first time in eight years. However, Democrats still remain cynical of whether Joe Biden has what it takes to stop Donald Trump from cementing his mark on history as a two-term President. 

Luckily for Democrats, if momentum is any indication, those fears may be irrelevant. Right now, all signs point to a clear Democratic sweep on Election Night, a feat unseen since Barack Obama’s 2008 victory gave Democrats a supermajority in both Houses of Congress. 

First, there’s the U.S. House of Representatives. Right now, Democrats have a 232 seat majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, compared to Republicans’ 197 minority. 

Democrats seem like almost a safe bet to retain the House for a number of reasons. For one, Republicans need to gain a whopping 21 seats to reclaim their House majority, making Kevin McCarthy Speaker, and Nancy Pelosi once Minority Leader, once again. 

For another, a Republican flip would be historically unusual, as no political party has ever flipped the House in an election year since 1952 when Dwight D. Eisenhower’s landslide victory gave Republicans the upper edge. 

For another, a record number of Republicans are retiring, meaning Republicans will have to defend their own seats without the advantage of the incumbency. 

Despite Democrats already holding a sizable majority, it’s not inconceivable they could pick up seats, a crazy turn of events that no pundit could have predicted earlier this year. 

In terms of local House races, most pundits agree that Republican incumbent Elise Stefanik is likely to easily defeat Democrat Tedra Cobb, while Democratic incumbent Paul Tonko is expected to easily dispatch Republican Liz Joy. 

So far, Democratic Congressman Antonio Delgado is the only incumbent who may have a run for his money, but so far he leads Republican Kyle Van De Water by a comfortable margin. 

Then comes the U.S. Senate. As of the moment Republicans currently hold 53 seats, while Democrats hold 47. To get a clear majority, which would in turn allow Democrats to abolish the filibuster, change existing Senate voting rules, and head important committees, they must gain four seats. 

However, if Democrats gain three seats, that would get them to a 50-50 tie, which if Joe Biden wins, would be broken by Vice President Kamala Harris, making Chuck Schumer Majority Leader, and Mitch McConnell Minority Leader. 

As of the moment, the Senate appears more competitive than ever, but right now Republicans appear to be on defense, not offense. There is one upside for Republicans, however. Most pundits agree that the Senate race in Alabama will swing from Democratic to Republicans. 

The race will put incumbent Democratic Senator Doug Jones against retired Auburn Tigers coach Tommy Tuberville, a Republican. Jones won in an upset three years ago after controversial Republican candidate Roy Moore was accused of assaulting a minor. In spite of the controversy, Jones barely defeated Moore in a state that supported Trump overwhelmingly in 2016 and is expected to do so again in 2020. 

Now pitted against the far less controversial Tuberville, few have any doubts that Republicans should easily reclaim this seat. 

Assuming Democrats lose that seat, they’d have to gain five seats to reclaim a distinct Senate majority, and four to get to a 50-50 tie. This setback would mean Democrats couldn’t afford to suffer anymore losses in any other states. Luckily for Democrats, after Alabama, their chances only get rosier. 

Although Republicans previously had high hopes of picking up seats in Minnesota and New Hampshire, Republican candidates there have failed to gain traction, and have since fallen far behind, making their chances of flipping highly unlikely. 

The only state outside of Alabama where Republicans are signs of gains is in Michigan where Democratic incumbent Gary Peters could face a tough match from Republican John James, a 39 year black Iraq War veteran. 

James came closer than expected to winning a Michigan Senate seat in 2018, and his campaign has been gaining momentum since announcing his candidacy last year. 

However, right now, Gary Peters remains the clear favorite in a state Trump carried by a hair in 2016. Democrats can also take advantage of the number of vulnerable Republican incumbents seeking re-election. 

In Colorado, Republican incumbent Cory Gardner is well behind the state’s former Democratic Governor John Hickenlooper in a heavily blue state and is expected to lose. 

Also expected to lose, Republican incumbent Martha McSally of Arizona. While the state was once a Republican stronghold, it’s recently shifted in a left-leaning direction due to demographic challenges. 

In 2018, McSally lost to Democrat Kirsten Sinema, the first Republican to lose a Senate seat in Arizona in nearly 25 years. However, after the death of John McCain, Governor Doug Ducey appointed McSally to be interim Senator. Now, lacking money, trailing in polls, and failing to gain any sort of momentum, McSally seems poised to easily lose to Democratic retired astronaut Mark Kelly. 

Republicans also see trouble in Maine, where long time Senator Susan Collins may have finally met her match. Collins, once among the most popular Senators in the nation, is now among the least popular. 

The moderate Republican in a blue-leaning state has recently come under fire for voting too conservatively in the eyes of some. Collins’ Democratic opponent, political newcomer Sara Gideon has criticized Collins for her vote for Justice Brett Kavanagh, and her vote against the impeachment of President Trump. 

Collins is also facing pressure about whether she will vote for Amy Coney Barrett to be confirmed to the Supreme Court or not. The race remains tight, but Gideon has the slight edge. 

Under these circumstances, Democrats would now be up to 49 seats, meaning they’d need two to win a clear majority, and one to get to a 50-50 tie. 

Right now, the two tossup races likely to make or break Senate chances are in North Carolina, where Republican Thom Tillis is desperately fending off challenge from former Democratic state lawmaker Cal Cunningham, and Iowa, where Republican Joni Ernst would like to take down Democrat Theresa Greenfield. 

The two races are highly competitive and could go either way. If Democrats don’t have luck there, they could try picking up one or both of the two Senate races up in Georgia this year, one where David Perdue is facing progressive Jon Ossoff, and the other where interim Senator Kelly Loefer is likely to face Democrat Raphael Warnock in a runoff special election to fill the seat left vacant by Senator Johnny Isakson’s resignation. 

Democrats could also attempt to pick up Montana, where incumbent Steve Daines is in a competitive race against the state’s Governor, Steve Bullock. Right now, however, Republicans have the advantage in those three races.

Democrats have also seen encouraging signs for the party in overwhelmingly Republican states like Kentucky, where Democrats are salivating over the idea of their candidate, retired Air Force pilot Amy McGrath beating despised Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, South Carolina where Democrat Jamie Harrison has raised a surprising amount of money in his bid to unseat incumbent Lindsay Graham, Texas where retired veteran M.J. Haeger has used the backing of big-name celebrities in ads to take on incumbent John Cornyn, and Kansas, where an open race between Republican Congressman Roger Marshall and doctor Barbra Bollier, a Democrat has become closer than expected as they hope to replace Pat Roberts. 

It should be noted however that those mentioned races are huge long shots for Democrats and are heavily favored for the Republican Party. However, the fact that the aforementioned states which backed Trump are considered even slightly competitive, shows the advantages Democrats have. 

Right now we predict the Senate is 49-49 with two tossup races. Consider the Senate tilt blue for now. Finally, there’s the matter of the Presidential election. Joe Biden has been leading Donald Trump by nearly double digits consistently in polls. 

While Trump’s success in 2016 was a surprise, Hillary Clinton’s polling lead in 2016 was much closer than any candidate could be comfortable. Biden’s current lead nearly doubles that of Clinton’s, giving the Biden camp hope. 

While it’s unlikely Biden’s win will be a 1964 landslide type scenario for Democrats, Biden could win decisively. If Biden wins the popular vote by 6% or more nationally, he is unlikely to lose the electoral vote. 

The most encouraging sign for Biden is that Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, all historically blue states flipped by Trump in 2016 in a surprise turn of events, are leaning in Biden’s favor. 

Minnesota, a state Trump was hoping to flip into his court is also leaning for Biden. Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Maine’s at-large district backed Clinton narrowly in 2016, and are likely to stay in Biden’s favor this year. 

The upside for Trump? Texas, Georgia, Iowa, and Ohio, all crucial swing states Trump can’t win without are all slightly favored to remain Republican in 2020. 

Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, and the second congressional districts in Maine and Nebraska are tossups. Still, even with tossups, our map gives Joe Biden 278 electoral votes off the bat, and a Donald Trump 203 electoral votes off the bat. Even if Trump sweeps all the tossup states listed, Biden would still have enough electoral votes to win the Presidency. 

Because of math, demographic changes, and an unpopular handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, Democrats have found themselves in a perfect spot for success in 2020. The question is can they hold that momentum going into November 3?