Politics With Nolan: 2020 Election Prediction
by Nolan Cleary, Managing Editor
With the 2020 Presidential election on the horizon, Americans look forward to what is likely to be another historic election year. The already controversial 2020 election will either conclude with the re-election of President Donald J. Trump or the election of former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. to be the 46th President of the United States.
With a worldwide pandemic, racial justice protests and social unrest across the globe, 2020 could be coming to an abrupt end with what many pundits are fearing could be the most divisive election result since Bush v. Gore in 2000.
As the Republican candidate, President Donald Trump is running for re-election on pre-pandemic accomplishments: namely, the economy. While the economy has taken a beating during the COVID-19 pandemic, Trump hopes Americans will remember the low unemployment numbers that preceded the events.
Additionally, Trump would like to tie Biden to a growing movement of progressives in America who he frames as far left. Trump’s plea to those in the middle being that Biden’s allegiance would remain with Nancy Pelosi, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders (to name a few).
As the Democratic Candidate, former Vice President Joe Biden is largely staying out of the spotlight, possibly to further paint the election as an anti-Trump referendum. Biden is hoping that Trump’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic will leave Americans yearning for a more traditional leader, and traditional is just up Biden’s ally.
Donald Trump is largely targeting his narrow but energetic base for support in November, partially by holding boisterous rallies to rally up ardent voters.
Joe Biden is attempting the opposite strategy, hoping to present himself as safer, more inoffensive and more competent to lead in times of crisis.
Another potentially major issue could be the Black Lives Matter protests throughout America following the death of George Floyd. Joe Biden’s response has largely been supportive towards the protests, as he attended George Floyd’s funeral while running mate Kamala Harris met with Jacob Blake, who was shot in the back seven times by police officers.
Donald Trump’s approach is law and order, attempting to crack down on riots in the midst of social unrest throughout America. Trump’s chances of re-election were largely threatened back in June, as rising support for the Black Lives Matter movement grew in the face of Trump’s vocal opposition to violent protests that followed. However, support for the movement has since fallen below 50%, giving Trump a potential boost.
One element hurting Trump’s chances are his trailing poll numbers. Since May, Biden has led Trump by +7% in a majority of polls. While polls have proven controversial and often inaccurate in the past, it should be noted that Trump never trailed challenger Hillary Clinton by that margin in 2016.
The last candidate to trail by this big of a margin was John McCain in 2008. He would later go on to lose to Barack Obama. The last incumbent President to trail by this large of a margin was George H. W. Bush in 1992. He went on to lose to Bill Clinton.
However, the numbers may not be as they seem. Trump still leads Biden handily in enthusiasm polls, which could sway the election. Additionally, Trump’s approval numbers have remained consistently in the low to mid 40s, just where George W. Bush and Barack Obama were during their reelection bids. Both Presidents went on to win re-election.
I previously correctly predicted Barack Obama’s victory in 2012, and Donald Trump’s victory in 2016. I also predicted all but two of the U.S. Senate races in 2018 correctly. My current verdict: Joe Biden will win. Donald Trump will become the first President in 28 years to lose re-election.
The reasoning behind my prediction involves Trump’s failure to divert and villainize Biden. Trump’s current message focuses on the economy before COVID-19 and the popular USMCA trade agreement that replaced the controversial NAFTA agreement. However, past numbers don’t reflect the current state, as the economy continues to suffer greatly.
Additionally, COVID-19 remains the top issue on the minds of most voters, and Trump struggles to effectively communicate the matter, as the vast majority of Americans disapprove of his response. Any other issues Trump attempts to address have been rendered irrelevant compared to the crisis at hand.
Furthermore, Joe Biden isn’t the widely despised candidate Hillary Clinton was, and despite multiple gaffes and an inability to excite, still retains a likable persona. Incumbents who have won re-election in the past were able to paint their opponents as a danger to America, using America’s comfort towards the status quo to their advantage.
In the case of Biden, not only has Trump failed to paint him as a danger to America, but he’s lost the status quo advantage to Biden as well, as many Americans believe a Biden presidency would return the country to a state of normality.
Trump’s attempt to brand Biden as “far-left” is also ineffective, as Biden is largely viewed as a moderate by most Americans, even eating endorsements from moderate Republicans such as former Ohio Governor John Kasich, former Bush Secretary of State Colin Powell and even Trump’s own former Press Secretary Anthony Scaramucci.
The election likely won’t be decisive however as mail-in voting will likely mean no winner is called on election night. Trump may seem to look headed for a landslide on Election Day before losing votes in the mail-in ballots. Either way, many Americans cautiously fear the backlash that could come from either side regardless of the results.