Politics with Nolan: Predictions on crucial state caucuses

By Nolan Cleary – Interim Creative Editor

Each democratic candidate is left with one question with the Iowa caucuses finished: what’s next?

With only ten Democrats left in the field, the crucial New Hampshire primaries start next week.

New Hampshire Primary, happening Feb. 11

This primary is an important step to winning the Presidency. 

As Senator Bernie Sanders is considered a top tier candidate, he appears to have the advantage. However, his chance of victory isn’t assured.

Vice President Joe Biden has been campaigning hard in New Hampshire, and many fear that Senator Elizabeth Warren could hurt Sanders’ chances of winning. Nevertheless, Sanders is leading in the polls by a narrow yet consistent margin. 

Final prediction: Lean Sanders

Nevada Caucus, happening Feb. 11

The Nevada Caucus could be a make or break for many of the candidates hoping to seek the nomination. 

For Biden, his blue collar background should appeal to voters in the state. However, Sanders’ populist message could also attract Nevada voters.

Despite this, Biden’s large appeal amongst minorities due to his association with former President Obama may give him just the advantage needed to take home victory.

Final prediction: Leans Biden

South Carolina Primary, happening Feb. 29

Unlike New Hampshire and Iowa, South Carolina’s Democratic base contains a larger, more diverse delegation.

Democrats in South Carolina tend to be more moderate, and less idealistic. All of this should benefit Biden, who currently holds a near supermajority over the African American vote in his party. 

However, Sanders received 26% of the 2016 vote in South Carolina against Hillary Clinton, making some Biden supporters believe it’s vital to have early momentum in the primaries.

Final prediction: Lean Biden

Super Tuesday Primaries and Caucuses, happening March 3

One of the biggest primary events of the season for both sides, Super Tuesday is likely to be a make or break for lesser candidates in the race, and the ultimate test for top tier candidates. 

Sanders will likely resonate with Democrats in rural states, while Biden will connect to members of his party in both diverse and conserative states. 

Candidates such as Warren may be tested by primaries in their own home states, while Mayor Michael Bloomberg will be expected to do well, due to the amounts of money being poured into advertising. 

Biden should benefit from primaries in more diverse states such as Tennessee, Alabama and Florida, giving him the slight edge that day. 

Final prediction: Lean Biden